Let’s put Wednesday behind us, it went quite horribly. Betting NHL props is all about moving on, it’s a fresh day, and our approach will get us back on track.
Thursday in hockey, we have 11 games on the schedule, with many of them looking like terrific value for shots on goal (SOG) looks.
Below are eight names that stick out to start the day. Four straight plays and two parlays, let’s get to it.
Kevin Hayes over 2.5 SOG (-120 DK)
Kevin Hayes has been rolling for Philadelphia, and Thursday’s game against Montreal should build on that success.
The Canadiens are allowing 36.2 shots per game at home in their past 10 games and seeing the second-most shots to centers since March 1.
Hayes centers Philly’s top line and has hit his SOG in eight of his past 10 games. On the road, he’s piled up four-plus shots on net in four of five. This is nice value for a guy rolling right now.
Hayes also leads Philadelphia in power-play shots in the past 20 games, and Montreal is averaging the fifth-most penalties per game. He’s going to have his chances of him.
Brendan Gallagher over 2.5 SOG (+110 DK)
This Montreal-Philadelphia game offers shot chances on both sides, and Brendan Gallagher seems like the appropriate target on the Canadiens’ end.
The Flyers are allowing 35 shots per game on the road in the last 10 games, and they also allow the second-most shots per game to RWs since the beginning of March.
Yes, Gallagher is a RW, but that’s just an add-on to liking this play. He’s hit in four of five overall and four straight at home. He also had four shots when these teams last met.
At plus-money, sign me up.
Parlay: Sam Bennett and Andrei Svechnikov over 2.5 SOG (+160 DK)
We have two parlays coming next, and you can mix and match these guys however you see fit if you like the logic. A round-robin approach could even be the right strategy here.
The first combination I’m rolling with is Bennett and Svechnikov.
Sam Bennett and Florida are in the smash spot of the day against Detroit. No team shoots more at home than the Panthers, and Detroit is allowing 37.1 shots per game on the road in their past 10.
The Red Wings are seeing the third-most shots per game to centers since March 1, and Bennett has hit his SOG in 14 of his past 16 at home, often blowing by the number.
Svechnikov has hit his SOG in four straight games and will face a Winnipeg team allowing 35.3 shots per game on the road in the past 10 games.
Carolina is another team that likes shooting at home, averaging the fourth-most shots per game. Svechnikov hit against Winnipeg last meeting, and the Jets allow the second-most shots to LWs.
Parlay: Charlie McAvoy and Adam Fox over 1.5 SOG (+144 DK)
Our second SOG parlay is a pair of defensemen absolutely rolling right now.
Not only are both of these guys hitting their SOG, but they both face teams letting up a ton of shots while being particularly vulnerable to defensemen.
The cherry on top is both of these players hit-rate against their opponents. I love this parlay.
McAvoy has hit his SOG in seven straight games and eight of 10 on the road. In two games against Pittsburgh, he has three and four shots on goal.
The Penguins are seeing 35.3 shots per game against them at home and the fifth-most shots from defensemen.
Fox has two-plus SOG in nine of 10 games. Against the Islanders this season, Fox has covered his SOG in all three games.
NYI are getting pummeled with shots at home lately (35.3 last 10, 38.8 last five) and allow the third-most shots to defensemen since 3/1.
Kirill Kaprizov over 3.5 (+105 DK)
I’ll gladly bet plus-money for Kirill Kaprizov on home ice. In Minnesota, Kaprizov has covered his SOG at a 67% rate on the year and in 13 of his past 16.
Vancouver is allowing 32.7 shots per game on the road in their last 10, making them a fine shot target for this evening.
Kaprizov is averaging 4.5 SOG per game in the two contests vs. the Canucks this season, going over this number in both instances.
Steven Stamkos over 2.5 SOG (-125 DK)
We’re going right back to Steven Stamkos in another advantageous spot. Toronto tends to see more shots against them on the road, 31.7 in their past 10.
The Maple Leafs are also gifting teams power-play chances lately, averaging the sixth-most penalties per game in the past 10 games.
Stamkos is leading the NHL in power-play shots in the past 20, with 30 shots.
He’s also just been solid lately, covering his SOG in six of eight. He’s had nice success against Toronto this season, covering his SOG prop in all three games.
It’s the potential for power plays that puts this play over the edge for me.
Best of luck Thursday night in the NHL, let’s get on track with some winning prop bets.