Jazz vs. Mavericks prediction, odds: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Recreation 3 greatest bets from mannequin on 86-56 run

The Utah Jazz host the Dallas Mavericks in Game 3 of a first round series in the 2022 NBA playoffs on Thursday. Utah won Game 1 in Dallas before dropping Game 2 on Monday. The teams are knotted at 1-1 as a result, with Game 3 providing a leg up in the series to the winner. Luka Doncic (calf), Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) and Frank Ntilikina (illness) have been ruled out for Dallas. Trent Forrest (foot) and Udoka Azubuike (ankle) are out for Utah.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Utah as a seven-point home favorite for this 9 pm ET typoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 210.5 in the latest Jazz vs. Mavericks odds. Before you make any Mavericks vs. jazz picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the first full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-56 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavs vs. Jazzand just locked in its picks and NBA Playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Mavs vs. Jazz:

  • Mavericks vs. Jazz spread: Jazz -7
  • Mavericks vs. Jazz over-under: 210.5 points
  • Mavericks vs. Jazz money line: Jazz -300, Mavericks +240
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • UTA: The Jazz are 3-6-1 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Mavericks can cover

Getting Doncic back would be huge, but Dallas is excellent on defense, which gives the Mavs a chance either way. The Mavericks ranked near the top of the NBA in defensive rating during the regular season, allowing only 109.1 points per 100 possessions. Dallas also led the NBA in 3-pointers allowed (10.9 per game), with a top-five mark in 3-point accuracy allowed at 34.0 percent. The Mavericks are facing a potent Jazz offense, but Dallas ranked in the top 10 of the league in free throw prevention, assist prevention and defensive rebound rate during the regular season. Utah has effective scorers, but the Jazz struggle to create easy looks through the pass, and the Mavericks are above-average in preventing fast break points.

On offense, the Mavericks finished the regular season No. 3 in the NBA in turnover prevention, and they have been even better in the playoffs. Dallas is committing a turnover on fewer than six percent of possessions through two games, producing nearly four assists for every giveaway. That boosts overall efficiency by increasing shot attempts, and the Mavericks are burying more than 39 percent of 3-point attempts against Utah. The Mavericks were also a top-five 2-point shooting team (54.8 percent) during the regular season, and Dallas can attack opponents in myriad ways.

Why the Jazz can cover

Utah led the NBA in offensive efficiency during the regular season, producing 1,162 points per possession. That is an elite figure when viewed through any lens, and the Jazz finished in the top six of the NBA in 2-point accuracy, field goal accuracy, 3-pointers per game, and free throw attempts. Donovan Mitchell leads the way for Utah on offense, averaging 25.9 points per game in the regular season, and he has 66 points in the first two games of the series. The Jazz are also mauling the Mavericks on the glass, securing more than 35 percent of offensive rebounds and more than 85 percent of defensive rebounds. That builds on top-five marks in offensive rebound rate and second-chance points per game during the regular season, and Utah is also a stellar defensive rebounding team on a regular basis.

The Jazz finished in the top 10 of the NBA in defensive efficiency and field goal percentage allowed, and allowed fewer free throw attempts (19.3 per game) than any NBA team. Dallas also falls short in a few offensive categories, ranking in the bottom quartile of the league in offensive rebound rate, second-chance points, fast break points and points in the paint during the regular season.

How to make Mavericks vs. jazz picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 223 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Jazz vs. Mavericks pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Jazz? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mavericks vs. Jazz spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

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